Arkansas’ net farm income is projected to fall for the fourth consecutive year, according to a May 6 report from the Rural & Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center. The spring report forecasts that net farm income in Arkansas will be $3.38 billion in 2026, remaining relatively stable compared to $3.32 billion in 2025, but with crop and livestock receipts expected to decline by five percent.
The continued decrease in net farm income matters for Arkansas farmers and rural communities who rely on agriculture as a primary economic driver. Persistent low commodity prices, high fuel and fertilizer costs, and external factors such as war, disease, and weather have contributed to these challenges.
“Overall, the 2026 farm income outlook reflects a shift away from broad-based market-driven gains toward increased reliance on policy support,” the report said. Hunter Biram, extension economist for the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture and one of the authors, said: “It’s very concerning.” Biram added: “Sustained production with no real drivers in demand continues to keep prices low.” He also said: “From a historical perspective, crop receipts minus expenses have been negative seven of the last 10 years, with the greatest losses being in 2024 and 2025 at around $1.5 billion each year.”
Biram explained that average negative net farm income over this period has been about $1 billion per year for Arkansas farmers. Positive crop incomes occurred only three times due to elevated post-pandemic prices but have since dropped by thirty percent while production costs remain twenty percent above pre-war levels. Production expenses are projected to increase by $80 million in total for next year—largely because of higher fertilizer and fuel costs attributed to conflict in the Middle East—with most farmers facing tight or negative margins.
“Many farmers are once again in a year where choosing a crop that has the greatest likelihood of lowest loss is the best-case scenario,” Biram said. He noted that government assistance is forecasted as “the only thing keeping that farm income afloat” with payments expected to rise by $1.12 billion—a one hundred seventy-nine percent increase—to reach $1.75 billion total.
Livestock agriculture receipts are also projected to fall five percent ($424 million) due mainly to lower egg receipts; however broiler (chicken), cattle/calf, and turkey sectors show slight increases or stability next year before mixed results anticipated for 2027.
The University of Arkansas Cooperative Extension Service operates across all seventy-five counties using county offices and research centers for program delivery; it receives funding through federal grants from the U.S Department of Agriculture along with state appropriations; supports social cohesion through programs tailored for rural as well as urban communities; aims at enhancing agriculture via research-backed practices; is part of University System Division of Agriculture; has specialists located on multiple campuses throughout Arkansas—according to the official website.
Looking ahead, experts expect government support will remain crucial if commodity prices do not recover or input costs continue rising.
